1. Investment Snapshot
2. Thesis
3. Valuation & Price Target
4. Business & Product Moat
5. People & Governance
6. Market & Macro
7. Financial Quality
8. Risk Register
9. Prediction Market
10. 𝕏 Posts
Discussion
1. Investment Snapshot
2. Thesis
3. Valuation & Price Target
4. Business & Product Moat
5. People & Governance
6. Market & Macro
7. Financial Quality
8. Risk Register
9. Prediction Market
10. 𝕏 Posts
Discussion
1. Investment Snapshot
2. Valuation
Discussion
Symbol
TLS
Event Date
2020-11-19
IPO Date (Actual)
2020-11-18
Sector
Information Technology
Subsector
IT Services
Offer Range
$17.00-$17.00
Shares Offered
14.97M
64.63M
$1.0B
23.2%
Implied Upside vs Midpoint
Description
Telos Corporation offers technologically advanced, software-based security solutions that empower and protect the world’s most security-conscious organizations against rapidly evolving, sophisticated and pervasive threats. Our portfolio of security products, services and expertise empower our customers with capabilities to reach new markets, serve their stakeholders more effectively, and successfully defend the nation or their enterprise. We protect our customers’ people, information, and digital assets so they can pursue their corporate goals and conduct their global missions with confidence in their security and privacy. Our customer base consists of the U.S. federal government, large commercial businesses, state and local governments, as well as international customers. Our federal government customers include the Department of Defense (“DoD”), the Central Intelligence Agency (“CIA”) and multiple other agencies within the Intelligence Community (“IC”), and multiple civilian agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security (“DHS”), the U.S. Department of State (“DoS”), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”). Our commercial customers include Fortune 500 enterprises such as Amazon.com, Inc., Citigroup Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and salesforce.com, inc. We have conducted business with over 350 customers in each of the last three years. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, approximately 50% of our revenue was derived from sole source contracts or contracts for which we had limited competition. Our customers are highly targeted by cyber attackers and require continuous real-time insights to make informed decisions about how to effectively balance the constraints of security risk with the freedom to act and decide in the best interests of the organization and the greater good of the public. Our advanced security solutions help protect and ensure confidence in the information that is vital to the world’s most important commercial and governmental organizations, national security, and mission success for the warfighter. Our revenue growth trajectory began to accelerate in 2018 as we increased our investment into new products and solutions. Our security solutions are the ultimate product of the investment of approximately 3,000 man-years developing our intellectual property and highly sophisticated software technology. These investments helped us expand with commercial customers, as well as win additional contracts within the military and the IC. Revenue grew from $107.7 million in 2017 to $138.0 million in 2018 and to $159.2 million in 2019, representing annual growth rates of 28.1% and 15.4%, respectively. Once our security solutions are imbedded in our customers’ technology infrastructure, these customer relationships often expand and lead to us providing additional security solutions. As a consequence, we believe that our customer turnover is low and, based on historical experience, approximately 85% of our revenue is recurring, as discussed further below. Our business consists of solution sales that generally are renewed on an annual basis and large programs that are executed through long-term contracts, often five to ten years in duration. We believe that the nature of our work lends itself to trusted and long-term relationships with our customers, which results in a high recurrence of ongoing customer revenue streams. As a result, much of our revenue is highly predictable. We develop our annual budgeted revenue by estimating for the upcoming year our continuing business from existing customers and active contracts. We consider backlog, both funded and unfunded, other expected annual renewals, and expansion planned by our current customers. In the context of our current customer portfolio, we view “recurring revenue” as revenue that occurs often and repeatedly. In each of the last three years, recurring revenue has exceeded 85% of our annual revenue. Our total budgeted revenue is the combination of recurring revenue and a forecast of new business. We expect our growth to accelerate beginning in 2021 and 2022 due to, among other factors, recent contract awards that are significant to our business. Notable recent awards include an expanded contract with a U.S. government agency for our Telos Ghost® managed intelligence support solution and contract wins under the Transportation Security Administration (“TSA”) PreCheck™ enrollment program and a program with The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (“CMS”). We believe the Telos Ghost contract will generate approximately $4 million to $5 million of incremental revenue in 2021 and represents a platform for potential further growth through military and civilian government units during and after 2021. The TSA PreCheck™ enrollment program – a 10-year contract on which we are one of three vendors – is expected to launch in early 2021. TSA estimates the market for TSA PreCheck™ enrollments is 2 million to 5 million travelers annually over the term of the contract, and we believe that the share of those enrollments we may secure on an average annual basis over that term should grow to approximately 30% to 40% of those travelers. We anticipate charging $85 for each TSA PreCheck™ membership transaction, with the possibility that additional revenue may be generated from co-marketing efforts. The CMS program – a 10-year indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract under which we anticipate providing services beginning in 2021 – involves our FBI-certified biometric enrollment solution. CMS estimates that approximately 1.5 million healthcare workers will obtain background checks annually under the program, and we believe we are well-positioned to secure this work over the 10-year contract term. Based on these and other assumptions, we believe these programs collectively may grow from a base of approximately $11 million in revenue in 2020 to between $75 million and $80 million in revenue and in excess of $135 million in revenue in 2021 and 2022, respectively. For these reasons, we anticipate that these recent contract awards, combined with our organic growth as well as other opportunities for business expansion, will contribute to rapidly accelerating revenue growth beginning in 2021 and 2022. --- Our Mission: Cyber, Cloud, and Enterprise Security Our mission is to protect our customers’ people, systems, and vital information assets with offerings for cybersecurity, cloud security, and enterprise security. In the current global environment, our mission is more critical than ever. The emergence of each new information and communications technology (“ICT”) introduces new vulnerabilities, as security is still too often overlooked in solution development. Networks and applications meant to enhance productivity and profitability often jeopardize an organization due to poor planning, misconfiguration, or an unknown gap in security. Ransomware, insider threats, cybercrime, and advanced persistent threats continue to menace public and private enterprises across all industries. Cybersecurity, cloud security, and enterprise security of the modern organization share much in common, yet also call for a diverse range of skills, capabilities, and experience in order to meet the requirements of security-conscious customers. Decades of experience in developing, orchestrating, and delivering solutions across these three domains gives us the vision and the confidence to provide solutions that empower and protect the enterprise at an integrated, holistic level. Our experience in addressing challenges in one area of an enterprise helps us meet requirements in others. We understand that a range of complementary capabilities may be needed to solve a single challenge, and we also recognize when a single solution might address multiple challenges. Our security solutions span across the following domains: • Cybersecurity – We help our customers ensure the ongoing security, integrity, and compliance of their on-premises and related cloud-based systems, reducing threats and vulnerabilities in order to foil cyber adversaries before they can attack. Our consultants assess our customers’ security environments and then design, engineer, and operate the systems they need to strengthen their cybersecurity posture. • Cloud Security – The cloud as an organizational resource is more than two decades old, yet the needs of cloud users are constantly changing. We offer the specialized skills and experience needed to help our customers plan, engineer, and execute secure cloud migration strategies and then ensure ongoing management and security in keeping with the leading standards for cloud-based systems and workloads. • Enterprise Security – Securing the enterprise means protecting the essential and timeless elements common to every organization: its people and processes, its supply chain and inventories, its finances and facilities, and its information and communications. As ICT and operational technology (“OT”) have become part of the organizational make-up, we have offered solutions that ensure personnel can work securely and productively across and beyond the enterprise. --- We were incorporated in Maryland in 1971. Our principal executive offices are located at 19886 Ashburn Road, Ashburn, Virginia 20147 and our telephone number is (703) 724-3800. Our website is www.telos.com.
TELOS CORP annual income statement and balance sheet, FY 2021 to FY 2025, as reported in SEC filings.
| Metric | FY 2021 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $242M | — | $108M | $165M |
| Gross profit | $86.0M | — | $34.4M | $61.0M |
| Operating income | ($41.5M) | — | ($55.9M) | ($39.9M) |
| Net income | ($43.1M) | — | ($52.5M) | ($36.5M) |
| Metric | FY 2021 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | $246M | — | $158M | $140M |
| Total liabilities | $65.8M | — | $31.1M | $43.9M |
| Total equity | $180M | $159M | $127M | $96.0M |
| Cash & equivalents | $127M | $99.4M | $54.6M | $53.2M |