1. Investment Snapshot
2. Thesis
3. Valuation & Price Target
4. Business & Product Moat
5. People & Governance
6. Market & Macro
7. Financial Quality
8. Risk Register
9. Prediction Market
10. 𝕏 Posts
Discussion
1. Investment Snapshot
2. Thesis
3. Valuation & Price Target
4. Business & Product Moat
5. People & Governance
6. Market & Macro
7. Financial Quality
8. Risk Register
9. Prediction Market
10. 𝕏 Posts
Discussion
1. Investment Snapshot
2. Metrics vs Peers
3. Price Chart
4. What does Mobia Medical, Inc. do?
5. Valuation
6. Offer Terms
7. Financial Statements
8. Business & Product Moat
9. People & Governance
10. Financial Quality
Discussion
Research report, target price, DCF and forensic scores are for subscribers. View plans
Symbol
MOBI
Listed on
2026-05-08
Sector
Health Care
Subsector
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Offer Price
$15.00
first filed $14.00–$16.00Shares Offered
10M
33.25M
$496.3M
30.1%
Implied Upside vs Midpoint
Description
**Valuation Verdict:** At the $15 midpoint, Mobia screens expensive at ~15.5x 2025 sales ($32.0M), leaving little margin for error in a single‑product story where reimbursement and controls remediation can drive (or derail) adoption. **Catalyst Timeline:** The next leg is payer conversion from “experimental” to reimbursed status; discrete coverage decisions and evidence readouts that support reimbursement are the clearest near‑term re‑rating catalysts, with implant volume trends as the confirming signal. **Growth & Margin Trajectory:** Revenue nearly doubled from $15.6M (2024) to $32.0M (2025) and gross profit reached $25.98M (~81% gross margin), but operating losses widened to $(46.4)M as commercialization spending ramped, keeping the model dependent on continued access to capital. **Governance & Operational Risk:** Risk is concentrated in limited coverage, single‑product exposure, and a disclosed material weakness in internal controls, each of which can slow uptake, raise financing costs, or force dilution. **Scenario Targets:** Target price: $15.00 with implied upside/downside vs offer midpoint: $0; the base case requires visible reimbursement momentum and sustained procedure growth to defend the current sales multiple, while a coverage stall would likely drive multiple compression.
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Product: Vivistim Paired VNS, an implanted IPG with lead and clinician software; FDA PMA (2021).○
Commercial stage with a direct salesforce and market access team.○
180‑day lockup.| Metric | Value | Peer median | Among peers | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV / revenue | 14.4x | 19.3x | ||
Revenue growth | 105% | 45.5% | ||
Gross margin | 81.1% | 68.8% | ||
Operating margin | -145% | -66.4% | ||
Net margin | -145% | -63.5% | ||
Rule of 40 | -39.9% | 9.7% | ||
Net cash / market cap | 6.8% | 0.7% | ||
Debt / equity | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
Current ratio | 4.54 | 3.53 | ||
9 premium metrics: DCF value / price, Growth the price needs: how common, Last 12 months vs full year and 6 more Unlock | ||||
At the $15 midpoint, Mobia screens expensive at ~15.5x 2025 sales ($32.0M), leaving little margin for error in a single‑product story where reimbursement and controls remediation can drive (or derail) adoption.
The next leg is payer conversion from “experimental” to reimbursed status; discrete coverage decisions and evidence readouts that support reimbursement are the clearest near‑term re‑rating catalysts, with implant volume trends as the confirming signal.
Revenue nearly doubled from $15.6M (2024) to $32.0M (2025) and gross profit reached $25.98M (~81% gross margin), but operating losses widened to $(46.4)M as commercialization spending ramped, keeping the model dependent on continued access to capital.
Risk is concentrated in limited coverage, single‑product exposure, and a disclosed material weakness in internal controls, each of which can slow uptake, raise financing costs, or force dilution.
Target price: $15.00 with implied upside/downside vs offer midpoint: $0; the base case requires visible reimbursement momentum and sustained procedure growth to defend the current sales multiple, while a coverage stall would likely drive multiple compression.
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Large addressable U.S. population cited (~1M chronic ischemic stroke survivors with moderate‑to‑severe impairment).○
Revenue roughly doubled from 2024 to 2025, consistent with early commercial uptake.○
The primary remaining hurdles are coverage, commercial scale, and evidence generation.For subscribers
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Implied P S (pro forma) ≈ 15.5x on 2025 revenue $32.0M.= Priced at $15.00, 0% above the midpoint of the first filed range ($14.00–$16.00, 2026-05-04).
Each filing is plotted ahead of the first trading day on the price chart.
| Filed | Form | Price range | Price | Shares offered | Deal size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | S-1/A | $14.00–$16.00 | — | 10,000,000 | $150.0M |
| 2026-05-08 | 424B4 | — | $15.00 | 10,000,000 | $150.0M |
Mobia Medical, Inc. income statement and balance sheet, FY Dec 2025 to FY Dec 2025, as reported in SEC filings.
| Metric | FY Dec 2025 |
|---|---|
| Total assets | $48.1M |
| Total liabilities | $19.1M |
| Total equity | ($151M) |
| Cash & equivalents | $33.6M |
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CEO Richard Foust — CEO since Jan 2022.○
CFO Nelson Bunker Curnes; material weakness flagged in the filing.○
Board chaired by Dana G. Mead, Jr., with multiple healthcare public‑company board experiences.−
Operating loss: (24.2)M (2024) → (46.4)M (2025).○
Revenue: $15.6M (2024) → $32.0M (2025).○
Gross profit: $12.45M (2024) → $25.98M (2025).○
Cash & equivalents: $14.6M (2024) → $33.6M (2025).