IPO Factor Research — July 2026

Across 1228 recent IPOs, here is which pre-IPO fundamentals and valuation factors actually moved with forward returns this month — only signals that survive Benjamini-Hochberg multiple-testing correction count as robust.

For first-month returns, Cash conversion cycle (days) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.30), EBITDA growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.24), Market cap ($M) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.24), Operating cash flow growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.23), UW syndicate: mid-market / quality bank (0/1) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.22), Auditor-quality flag (0-1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.21), Forensic risk score (0-100) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.21), UW syndicate: bulge bracket (0/1) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.20), Accruals magnitude (|NI - CFO| / assets) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.19), Piotroski F-score (0-8) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.19), Deal-structure flag (0-1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.18), UW syndicate: high-risk / cross-border flipper (0/1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.18), Net income growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.17), Op. cash flow / revenue % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.17), Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.17), Free cash flow / revenue % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.16), Going-concern flag (0-1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.15), Cash runway (months) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.15), Operating cash flow yield % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.15), EBITDA margin % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), Stock-based comp / revenue % (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.14), Gross profit growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), SG&A / revenue % (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.14), Return on assets % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), Net margin % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), Retained earnings / assets % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.13), Operating margin % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.13), FCF yield % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.13), Accruals ((NI - CFO) / assets) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.11), UW syndicate: small/micro-cap specialist (0/1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.10), Altman Z'' (distress) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.10), Registration amendments (count) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.09), UW syndicate: research-first / merchant (0/1) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.07) held up after FDR correction.

For three-month returns, Operating cash flow growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.30), EBITDA growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.29), UW syndicate: mid-market / quality bank (0/1) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.27), Market cap ($M) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.27), Deal-structure flag (0-1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.26), Forensic risk score (0-100) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.24), UW syndicate: bulge bracket (0/1) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.24), Accruals magnitude (|NI - CFO| / assets) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.23), Auditor-quality flag (0-1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.22), Net income growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.22), UW syndicate: high-risk / cross-border flipper (0/1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.20), Op. cash flow / revenue % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.20), Piotroski F-score (0-8) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.19), Cash runway (months) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.18), Operating cash flow yield % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.17), Free cash flow / revenue % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.16), Stock-based comp / revenue % (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.15), Cash conversion cycle (days) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), Gross margin Δ (YoY, ppt) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), FCF yield % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), Gross profit growth % (YoY) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.14), Going-concern flag (0-1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.14), EBITDA margin % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.13), Retained earnings / assets % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.13), Revenue growth % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.13), Current ratio (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.13), Quick ratio (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.12), UW syndicate: research-first / merchant (0/1) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.11), Altman Z'' (distress) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.11), Operating margin % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.11), UW syndicate: small/micro-cap specialist (0/1) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.11), Effective tax rate % (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.10), Return on assets % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.10), Price/Sales (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.09), Net margin % (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.09), EV/Revenue (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.09), Registration amendments (count) (higher → weaker returns, IC -0.09), Accruals ((NI - CFO) / assets) (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.07), Book / market (higher → stronger returns, IC 0.05) held up after FDR correction.

Methodology: per-variable winsorized means, univariate OLS slope significance, the Information Coefficient (Spearman rank correlation), and top-minus-bottom quintile spreads, plus cross-validated Ridge/Lasso/Elastic-Net multivariate fits. Pre-IPO fiscal-year fundamentals only.